Sunday, March 15, 2020

COVID-19

On March 9, 2020, the World Health Organization declared the COVID-19 viral disease a PANDEMIC. This is the first pandemic caused by a coronavirus," WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said at a briefing in Geneva.


It's the first time the WHO has called an outbreak a pandemic since the H1N1 "swine flu" in 2009.

The COVID-19 which had the initial cases reported from mainland China in December of last year has seen extreme responses from both governments and citizens. Until a few weeks ago, the US called it similar to the flu and something not to be concerned about. Earlier this week the US declared a national emergency and put in restrictions on travel from Europe in addition to a few countries that had earlier been restricted.

India has restricted all incoming international tourists and visitors for 1 month. Several governments and companies are stepping up and taking preventive action including work from home and restricting non-essential travel.

The biggest issue is with misinformation and partial information that many are basing their behavior thanks to the ever-powerful social media. It seems to be Its on "---" and so it must be true, where --- can be substituted by your favorite social media including WhatsApp, Instagram, Twitter, Facebook, ...


There are however several places that are disseminating good data and information. My favorite is the Johns Hopkins "CoronaVirus Resource Center". Do visit it and be Safe.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/

Here are a few specific links, you should review.

What Is Coronavirus?
https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus


Coronavirus at a Glance: Infographic
https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-facts-infographic

Coronavirus Disease 2019: Myth vs. Fact
https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/2019-novel-coronavirus-myth-versus-fact

And you should definitely have a look at and possibly review daily the real-time COVID-19 Global Cases Map.


https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6



When the WHO declared a pandemic the question that came to my mind was what is a pandemic and how many pandemics have we had.

"A pandemic is the global outbreak of a disease. There are many examples in history, the most recent being the COVID-19 pandemic, declared as such by the World Health Organization on March 12, 2020.

Pandemics are generally classified as epidemics first, which is the rapid spread of a disease across a particular region or regions. The Zika virus outbreak that began in Brazil in 2014 and made its way across the Caribbean and Latin America was an epidemic, as was the Ebola outbreak in West Africa in 2014-2016. The U.S. has been experiencing an opioid epidemic since 2017 because of the widespread misuse and high numbers of deaths caused by the drug, according to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services."
https://www.livescience.com/pandemic.html




"
A Timeline of Historical Pandemics

Disease and illnesses have plagued humanity since the earliest days, our mortal flaw. However, it was not until the marked shift to agrarian communities that the scale and spread of these diseases increased dramatically.

Widespread trade created new opportunities for human and animal interactions that sped up such epidemics. Malaria, tuberculosis, leprosy, influenza, smallpox, and others first appeared during these early years.

The more civilized humans became – with larger cities, more exotic trade routes, and increased contact with different populations of people, animals, and ecosystems – the more likely pandemics would occur.

Here are some of the major pandemics that have occurred over time:


Name Time period Type / Pre-human host Death toll
Antonine Plague 165-180 Believed to be either smallpox or measles 5M
Japanese smallpox epidemic 735-737 Variola major virus 1M
Plague of Justinian 541-542 Yersinia pestis bacteria / Rats, fleas 30-50M
Black Death 1347-1351 Yersinia pestis bacteria / Rats, fleas 200M
New World Smallpox Outbreak 1520 – onwards Variola major virus 56M
Great Plague of London 1665 Yersinia pestis bacteria / Rats, fleas 100,000
Italian plague 1629-1631 Yersinia pestis bacteria / Rats, fleas 1M
Cholera Pandemics  1-6 1817-1923 V. cholerae bacteria 1M+
Third Plague 1885 Yersinia pestis bacteria / Rats, fleas 12M (China and India)
Yellow Fever Late 1800s Virus / Mosquitoes 100,000-150,000 (U.S.)
Russian Flu 1889-1890 Believed to be H2N2 (avian origin) 1M
Spanish Flu 1918-1919 H1N1 virus / Pigs 40-50M
Asian Flu 1957-1958 H2N2 virus 1.1M
Hong Kong Flu 1968-1970 H3N2 virus 1M
HIV/AIDS 1981-present Virus / Chimpanzees 25-35M
Swine Flu 2009-2010 H1N1 virus / Pigs 200,000
SARS 2002-2003 Coronavirus / Bats, Civets 770
Ebola 2014-2016 Ebolavirus / Wild animals 11,000
MERS 2015-Present Coronavirus / Bats, camels 850
COVID-19 2019-Present Coronavirus – Unknown (possibly pangolins) 4,700 (as of Mar 12, 2020)

Note: Many of the death toll numbers listed above are best estimates based on available research. Some, such as the Plague of Justinian, are subject to debate based on new evidence.

Despite the persistence of disease and pandemics throughout history, there’s one consistent trend over time – a gradual reduction in the death rate. Healthcare improvements and understanding the factors that incubate pandemics have been powerful tools in mitigating their impact.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/history-of-pandemics-deadliest/

p.s.: Ivy is a pulmonologist and is in her usual quiet, efficient and effective way leading the effort to control and treat patients affected with the CoronaVirus at her hospital. We are immensely proud of her and have our fingers crossed for her continued wellbeing.

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